Market Context
Volatility remains moderate, with the VIX holding near the 18 area despite recent weakness.
Premium remains available, but this is not a high-volatility environment where risk is automatically well compensated.
SPY continues to hold its broader uptrend above major support, while QQQ is testing short-term support after losing momentum from recent highs.
The higher-timeframe structure remains constructive, but short-term price action has become less directional.
This week’s calendar is dominated by mega-cap earnings, with Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon reporting.
Event risk is elevated, making stock selection more important than market direction.
The environment still favors selective premium selling. Earnings risk, not volatility, is the primary filter this week.
Last Week — Trade Recap
Note: Covered call sold above the $39 assignment basis before earnings, using the monthly expiration to collect additional premium while accepting assignment at breakeven. Position remains open.
Note: Covered call sold above the $33 assignment basis after a pullback into the $32-33 support area. Elevated IV provided strong short-dated premium while preserving upside above cost basis. Expired worthless.
Note: Cash-Secured Put opened near the $130 support cluster during an early bullish transition on the lower timeframe. The trade prioritized acceptable long-term assignment quality over premium alone while remaining outside earnings week. Position remains open.
Current Positions
Plan: Covered call at the $39 strike remains open. Price moved above the strike following earnings, making call-away at the assignment basis increasingly likely.
Plan: Shares remain well below the assignment basis in a confirmed downtrend. Covered call management remains deferred until price recovers toward a more acceptable strike area.
Plan: Price remains below the assignment basis with earnings only a few days away. Covered call management remains deferred until after the earnings event.
Plan: Covered call at the $265 strike remains open. Shares remain below the assignment basis ahead of earnings, with the existing call continuing to generate premium while preserving an exit above cost basis.
Plan: Price recovered from the recent low but remains well below the assignment basis. Waiting for a stronger recovery before resuming covered call management.
Plan: Price remains well below the assignment basis. Covered call management remains deferred until a more acceptable strike becomes available.
Plan: Covered calls expired worthless. Shares sold off sharply below the assignment basis, so additional covered call management remains deferred.
Plan: Assigned at expiration after the $190 CSP. Price remains below the assignment basis with earnings only a few days away, so covered call management remains deferred.
Plan: Assigned at expiration after the $57 CSP. Price closed near the assignment basis, and covered call management will begin once an acceptable strike and premium become available.
Plan: 2 contracts. Break-even: $126.75. Position remains open ahead of expiration, with the $130 support area remaining the primary level to monitor.
Watchlist
AGGRESSIVE
BALANCED
SAFE
No qualifying SAFE setups this week.
What I Am Not Touching
No trades into earnings.
This week is dominated by mega-cap reports, and event risk overrides otherwise acceptable technical structure.
No chasing premium in high-beta names.
Volatility remains moderate at index level, while single-name premium often reflects binary earnings risk rather than a favorable assignment opportunity.
No new covered calls below cost basis.
Several assigned positions remain below acceptable exit levels, and forced premium collection would compromise recovery management.
No front-running support.
QQQ has lost short-term momentum, and several watchlist names still require stabilization before downside can be defined. Structure before premium.
Process Note
Last week included one new CSP entry and two covered-call positions.
HIMS expired worthless, while EQNR and PLTR remain active inside defined management plans.
The portfolio now includes several assigned share positions under recovery management.
Covered calls will be sold only when the strike is above cost basis and the assignment outcome remains acceptable.
This week I published a video on evaluating a strategy beyond recent performance.
The S&P 500 has outperformed the Wheel portfolio recently, but short-term relative performance alone does not determine whether the process has changed.
The video covers the expected trade-offs of the Wheel during strong bull markets, the cost of switching strategies, and the framework used before changing portfolio decisions.
Watch here: https://youtu.be/pXX4v48j5ho
Earnings risk is the primary constraint this week. Premium is available, but no premium justifies accepting binary risk or weak assignment structure.
The process remains unchanged: define risk first, deploy selectively, and manage each position one decision at a time.
— Wizolver